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| IMF Reports On Barbados Visit |
by Phillip Morton, Investors Offshore.com
Tuesday, March 02, 2010
Marcello Estevăo, head of the recent International Monetary Fund Mission
to Barbados, has reported on his delegation’s findings during their five-day
staff visit. He stated:
“Barbados has been severely affected by the global economic crisis.
In particular, the deep global recession has curbed tourism, affecting related
activities such as construction and trade which, in turn, depressed aggregate
demand and raised unemployment. As a result, economic activity contracted significantly
in 2009 after remaining broadly stagnant in 2008.”
“Despite these hardships, policy moves and other developments have limited
the adverse effects of the crisis. International reserves are at comfortable
levels, among other things thanks to a successful foreign debt placement last
year and the SDR (Special Drawing Rights) allocation. In addition, authorities implemented measures to
alleviate the impact of the crisis on the population. However, as a result of
these measures and, more importantly, of the economic cycle, the fiscal deficit
surged, and the public debt now stands above 100% of GDP.”
“Looking forward, while economic activity in Barbados will improve as
the world economy gradually expands, the recovery’s timing is quite uncertain.
In particular, significant improvements in labour market conditions in major
developed countries will likely lag the rebound in economic activity and curb
international travel. Despite this uncertain outlook, the high level of public
debt limits the room for further government spending. Moreover, the high degree
of openness of the Barbadian economy limits the impact of changes in government
spending on domestic economic activity.” Estevăo concluded:
“Against this backdrop, fiscal consolidation seems to be the appropriate
strategy. Reducing government spending, increasing tax collection efficiency,
and broadening the tax base would support the exchange rate regime and improve
the government’s balance sheet. Moreover, credible and sustainable measures
can actually raise medium-term growth, as better debt dynamics and lower pressure
on external reserves would raise the private sector’s willingness to invest
in Barbados. Thus, the authorities’ intention to push forward a medium-term
fiscal consolidation strategy is very welcome.”
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