The significant deterioration in Cyprus's public finances requires a "strong
and immediate policy response" to restore confidence in the territory's international
finance centre, according to a report from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
In its Article IV consultation, the IMF underscores that: "Decisive and
credible measures to reverse the fiscal slippage and put the public debt ratio
on a declining path are essential to restore access to capital markets, safeguard
the confidence of investors that underpins Cyprus’ role as an international
financial center, and protect the competitiveness of the economy".
Fiscal consolidation, while necessary to restore sound public finances and
lay the foundations for durable growth, may dampen demand in the short-term,
the IMF has warned. As a result, the economy is expected to show little, if
any growth this year, and to register a small contraction in 2012.
“Bold corrective actions can set the stage for resumption of economic
growth, based on the underlying strengths of the Cypriot economy," the
IMF said. "These [strengths] include a successful international services
sector built on the foundation of a highly-educated workforce and entrepreneurial
spirit.”
Discussing future tax policy, the IMF welcomed recent policy decisions taken
by the government in August, and agreed by parliament, which included the introduction
of a new top personal income tax rate and increases to fees paid by companies.
“The government has set ambitious targets that would deliver a large
reduction in the deficit in 2012 and a balanced budget within three years. This
timeframe strikes an appropriate balance, providing for large up-front savings
while avoiding an excessive contraction in demand in the near term,” the
IMF noted.
“The measures passed in August were an encouraging first step towards
achieving the government’s fiscal targets, in particular the introduction
of contributions by public sector employees towards their pensions,” it
added.
The IMF said that the reduction of the country's 7% of GDP deficit must be
rapid in order to have the desired effect in restoring confidence.
In order to achieve the necessary adjustment, forthcoming] measures should
comprise actions to contain public sector wages and benefits, such as a freeze
of the cost of living allowance; targeting of social transfers, while protecting
the social safety net for the most vulnerable; and an increase in the Value-Added
Tax rate to 17%, which is still be well below the EU median level of 20%, the
IMF recommended.
“The government should now move quickly to pass into legislation specific
measures in the context of a credible multi-year consolidation plan for 2012-14.
It should ensure that the magnitude of the measures is fully sufficient to achieve
the target of fiscal balance by 2014, and stand ready to take additional measures
if needed in the period ahead,” the Fund said.
“Cyprus has taken initial steps towards budgetary reform, but further
actions are necessary to support the introduction of a multi-year budgetary
framework. More accurate revenue and expenditure estimates and fewer budget
rigidities will reduce the need for supplementary budgets,” the report
stressed.
The IMF also recommended that reorganization of the revenue administration
to combine separate departments that administer different taxes with limited
exchange of information, will improve efficiency. Reforms in these areas will
help the government succeed in its fiscal consolidation efforts, it said.